Ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait fell to its lowest level in months on Sunday following Houthi attacks on Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea coast. Data from Kpler showed only 11 commodity vessels passed through the strait, a critical chokepoint. This disruption has already caused prices of physical crude cargoes in the Middle East, Europe, and Africa to surge to two-month highs.
Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree claimed responsibility for striking Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday, stating they used dozens of ballistic missiles and drones. This marks an escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict and aims to blockade Saudi oil exports. The attacks were reportedly in retaliation for Saudi forces bombing Hodeidah port in Yemen after the rebel group targeted commercial ships in the Red Sea.
The shipping slow down forced at least four vessels to exit the Red Sea on Sunday. These included the Hong Kong-flagged VLCC New Explorer and New Pearl, each carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi and Emirati crude for China, and tankers carrying Russian crude for China and Saudi crude for Pakistan. Seven oil tankers passed through Bab el-Mandeb, with three entering the Red Sea, including two very large crude carriers (VLCCs) heading to Yanbu to load Saudi crude. Goldman Sachs estimates that nearly 9 million barrels per day typically pass through Bab el-Mandeb.
Oil prices have reacted sharply, with Brent crude rising nearly 5% to $98.59 a barrel, its highest since June 3, and U.S. WTI crude gaining close to 4% to reach $90.22, its highest since June 11. Analysts indicate that markets are now factoring in the risk of disruptions at this second major chokepoint, beyond the Strait of Hormuz, which itself saw fewer than 10 commodity vessels transit daily over the weekend.
