Between April 2020 and July 2023, large urban centers across the United States saw a substantial decrease in their population of children under five years old. New York City, for instance, experienced an 18% drop in this demographic. Similarly, Chicago's Cook County saw a 15% decline, San Francisco a 15% decrease, and Los Angeles County a 14% reduction during the same period. This trend is not confined to a few cities; double-digit percentage drops were recorded in counties encompassing most or all of Minneapolis, Philadelphia, and St. Louis.
While the pace of this urban exodus was most rapid during 2020 and 2021, the decline continues, albeit at a slower rate. Large urban counties averaged a 3.9% decrease in kids under five between 2020-2021, followed by a 2.2% drop from 2021-2022, and a 1.5% decrease between 2022-2023. At the current rate, some cities like Manhattan, Brooklyn, Chicago, Los Angeles, and San Francisco are projected to lose 50% of their under-5 population over the next two decades.
This demographic shift has significant implications for urban infrastructure and services. A declining child population can lead to school closures and reduced demand for amenities catering to families. The “urban doom loop” concept, typically applied to office space and tax revenues, now extends to children, meaning fewer kids could lead to fewer family-friendly amenities, thus making cities less attractive to families. This trend also affects property values and the local labor force as young families, typically aged 25 to 44, increasingly move to suburban or rural areas.
Although some big cities are experiencing overall population growth since the pandemic, this is primarily attributed to an increase in immigrant residents and a decline in death rates, rather than a return of young domestic families. Domestic out-migration from large cities remains double the pre-pandemic levels. The primary reasons for this exodus appear to be a search for more space and potentially the high cost of living in major urban centers, though other factors are also likely at play.
