Iran's ballistic missile program has undergone a "real transformation" over the past three years, with its capabilities remaining approximately 70% intact despite previous claims of obliteration. This enhancement is attributed to improved intelligence, missile navigation, maneuverability, and coordinated attack planning, according to Andreas Krieg, a professor at King's College London. The program heavily relies on Chinese electronics and ammonium perchlorate for rocket fuel, producing sophisticated weapons capable of occasionally defeating US and Gulf air defenses.
Iranian missiles now integrate GPS, China's BeiDou, and Russia's Glonass navigation systems simultaneously, enhancing their accuracy. They also feature "steerable warheads" that can adjust their course during descent, utilizing heat-seeking and optical navigation, which makes them immune to electronic jamming. Recent attacks on US bases and critical infrastructure in the Gulf have shown increased accuracy, facilitated by Chinese satellite imagery—a factor that led the US to sanction three Chinese companies in May for providing such images. Satellite imagery released by Iranian media, including through Mizar Vision, has even exposed the presence of US military aircraft and air defense systems at bases in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and notably, the Muwaffaq Salti airbase in Jordan, where a THAAD system failed to prevent an attack that killed three US soldiers.
Iran has also adopted tactical innovations from Russia's war in Ukraine, employing smaller, more effective salvos and using drones to distract air defenses for subsequent ballistic missile strikes. This strategy exacerbates the challenge for US air defenses, especially with Patriot and THAAD interceptor stockpiles reportedly reduced by half after the 38-day US-Israel bombing campaign in the spring. While the Sejjil missile, known as the "dancing missile" for its evasive maneuvers and near-hypersonic speed (Mach 10 or more), presents a formidable challenge, making it difficult for conventional missile defense systems to intercept, the use of cheaper Shahed drones by Iran also poses a significant attrition threat. These drones, costing $30,000 to $50,000 each, can overwhelm air defenses, with interceptors costing ten times more, and have been launched at Gulf states with over 90% interception rates, yet at a high financial cost.
The strategic implications are significant, as Iran's enhanced missile capabilities complicate US and allied defensive postures. The ability to mount rapid, accurate, and coordinated attacks, combined with the use of cheap drones to deplete expensive interceptor stockpiles, presents a sustained threat. This situation highlights the challenges for the US in ramping up air and missile defense production, as it only produces about 600 Patriot interceptors annually, amidst growing global conflicts and increasing demand from allies. The continued effectiveness of these Iranian systems means that new leadership in Tehran is willing to deploy them, ensuring the issue remains a grave threat to global stability.
