The US cattle herd experienced a slight increase, signaling a potential shift towards rebuilding after a period of decline. The USDA's biannual Cattle Inventory report on July 24, 2026, indicated a steady to slightly up trend in beef cow inventory, although widespread expansion through heifer retention is not yet evident. Analysts suggest that any increase in beef cows might be due to producers keeping existing cows longer, rather than a significant increase in replacement heifers.
The same USDA reports also covered cattle on feed. While more cattle on feed are anticipated, this is not attributed to an increase in available feeder cattle. Instead, it suggests a slower movement of cattle through the system. DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart noted that the total number of all cattle and calves as of January 1, 2026, was 86.2 million head, slightly below the 86.5 million head recorded on January 1, 2025. Beef cows numbered 27.6 million head, representing the seventh consecutive decline since 2019, while milk cows increased by 2% to 9.57 million head.
Despite a 1% increase in beef replacement heifers to 4.71 million head for 2026, this 41,700-head increase is not considered substantial enough to indicate meaningful herd expansion. Overall, the reports were largely in line with expectations, not unveiling any major surprises. The 2025 calf crop was estimated at 32.9 million head, down 2% from the previous year, suggesting continued thin supplies. Cattle on feed for slaughter totaled 13.8 million head on January 1, 2026, a 3% decrease from 2025.
Looking ahead, feeder steer prices are forecast to average around $420.59/cwt and $410.13/cwt for the last two quarters of 2026, potentially reaching $439.14/cwt and $450.17/cwt in the first two quarters of 2027. Slaughter steer prices are projected to average $251.60/cwt and $245.68/cwt. These forecasts are underpinned by low cattle inventories, moderate feed costs, and robust domestic demand, though demand softening could lead to lower prices. The current market shows signs of weakening, with managed-money traders reducing long positions, creating short-term risk for cattle prices despite tight supplies. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu, brownfieldagnews.com, rfdtv.com, drovers.com, dtnpf.com
