Finnish refiner Neste Oyj posted a net profit of EUR 765 million ($817 million USD) in the second quarter of 2026, or EUR 0.99 per share, a substantial turnaround from a loss of EUR 36 million ($38 million USD), or EUR 0.05 per share, in the same period last year. This strong performance was attributed to higher end-product prices, which boosted revenue by EUR 2.4 billion year-over-year, leading to total revenue of EUR 5.987 billion ($6.4 billion USD), up from EUR 4.511 billion ($4.8 billion USD) previously.
The company's operating income surged to EUR 918 million ($981 million USD) from EUR 18 million ($19 million USD) in the prior year, reflecting an exceptional market environment influenced by the conflict in the Middle East. CEO Heikki Malinen highlighted that the conflict dominated global oil and product markets, creating favorable conditions for Neste, particularly for its renewable fuels business. Analyst Adnan Dhanani of RBC Capital Markets noted that "every day this conflict continues, Neste’s near-term earnings outlook looks more attractive."
Several financial institutions have reacted positively, with RBC Capital Markets upgrading Neste to "outperform" and raising its price target to €30 ($32 USD) from €20 ($21 USD). Barclays also upgraded the company to "overweight" with a €32 price target, and Morgan Stanley increased its target to €28.50 ($30 USD) from €25 ($27 USD). These upgrades reflect improved margins, with European diesel surging from $700 per ton to $1,100 per ton, and renewable diesel rising by approximately $150 per ton. Neste noted that a $50 per ton change in renewable products margin implies a $280 million operating profit sensitivity.
Looking ahead, Neste expects sales volumes of renewable products to remain largely flat compared to 2025, while oil product sales volumes are anticipated to decline due to planned maintenance. The company forecasts cash-out capital expenditure, excluding M&A, to be around EUR 1.2 billion ($1.28 billion USD) for fiscal year 2026. Neste also achieved its performance improvement program's target of €350 million ($374 million USD) in annualized run-rate EBITDA gains ahead of schedule in 2025.
