Intel is entering a pivotal earnings report for the second quarter, 2026, with the company's shares having rallied approximately 185% year-to-date, despite a 25% drop from June highs. Analysts are closely watching for concrete evidence that AI-driven CPU demand is translating into sustainable profit growth for the chipmaker. The report will also address the credibility of Intel's contract manufacturing pivot and a potential Apple foundry agreement.
LSEG consensus estimates project Intel's revenue to rise 12.1% year-over-year to $14.42 billion, marking its fastest quarterly revenue growth in nearly six years. Adjusted earnings are expected to reach 21 cents per share, a significant improvement from the 10-cent loss reported in the same period last year. The Data Center and AI Group is a key focus, with analysts forecasting $5.37 billion in revenue, a 36.4% increase from a year earlier, as cloud providers increasingly utilize Intel's CPUs alongside AI accelerators for inference workloads.
Despite the positive outlook, profitability remains a concern due to heavy manufacturing investments. Analysts expect an adjusted gross margin of roughly 38.8%, down from 41% in the first quarter, influenced by the ramp-up of new 18A process nodes. While Intel has consistently beaten Wall Street revenue estimates for seven consecutive quarters and earnings for three, each success raises the bar for future reports. The Q1 2026 beat was significant, with adjusted earnings of 29 cents against a 1-cent consensus and $13.58 billion in revenue, leading to a 20% stock surge after hours. UBS and Susquehanna have raised their price targets for Intel, citing improving data center demand and potential for foundry progress.
