Roche issued a prudent forecast for the year due to disappointing sales of its blockbuster eye drug, Vabysmo, which only saw a 7% increase in sales last quarter amid a slowdown in the US market. This performance has led to analysts potentially revising their estimates and caused Roche's shares to fall in early trading.
Vabysmo, despite being Roche's third-highest selling drug in 2025 with $5.3 billion (4.1 billion Swiss francs) in sales, undershot analysts' consensus by 8% in Q4 and saw its second-half 2025 sales drop by 32 million Swiss francs compared to the first half. The primary reason for this slowdown is attributed to a contraction in the U.S. branded market for anti-VEGF drugs, driven by factors like the closure of copay foundations which led more patients to switch to non-branded options like Avastin and biosimilars. The overall branded intravitreal injection market in the U.S. shrank by 15% throughout 2025.
Despite the market contraction, Vabysmo reportedly gained market share, with over 60% of new patient starts in the U.S. being treatment-naïve individuals, solidifying its position as a standard of care. Roche expects Vabysmo's growth to accelerate in 2026, driven by international launches and a projected recovery in the U.S. market, as patients re-evaluate insurance benefits and out-of-pocket costs at the beginning of the year. However, increased competition, including upcoming treatments with longer dosing intervals, could pose a challenge.
Roche's first-quarter 2026 sales were 14.7 billion Swiss francs, a 6% increase at constant exchange rates but a 5% decrease when reported in Swiss francs due to the strong Swiss franc impacting results against other currencies, particularly the US dollar. The pharmaceuticals division grew 7% at constant exchange rates to 11.5 billion Swiss francs, but this translated to a 4% decline in reported Swiss franc sales, highlighting an 11-percentage-point negative currency impact. Vabysmo's Q1 sales grew 13% at unchanged exchange rates, reaching 1.02 billion Swiss francs, though this was still 1% below consensus, indicating the ongoing struggle with market dynamics and currency headwinds.
