Restoring pre-war oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz would likely necessitate a considerably larger US naval presence, or potentially tens of thousands of American troops on Iranian soil, according to experts. Iran retains the ability to target vessels in the narrow Persian Gulf with drones and missiles, which are concealed across its vast territory. Such an operation would demand months to prepare and incur "very high costs."
Securing the Strait of Hormuz adequately is difficult to envision without ground forces, as per Campbell, an expert cited in the reports. These troops would be needed not only to neutralize Iran's hidden munitions but also to secure hundreds of miles of coastline and extensive inland areas, likely facing insurgent attacks. Michael Eisenstadt, a former US military analyst, noted that this effort would require a substantial portion of the US fleet to be dedicated on an open-ended basis, despite the current US fleet being smaller than in the 1980s.
The complexity of the situation is heightened by Iran's advanced capabilities, including its capacity for drone and missile strikes. Even without direct attacks, the mere threat of Iranian actions via marine radio can deter many seafarers, according to Noam Raydan. Commercial vessels have already been avoiding traditional routes due to fear of Iranian mines, instead navigating a southern route along the coast of Oman under US oversight. The continued disruption in the strait is causing oil prices, such as Brent crude reaching as high as $85, to tick steadily higher, impacting global economies and posing a political liability for the current US administration due to rising gas prices.
