Cuba's population decreased to 9,434,593 inhabitants by the end of 2025, marking a decline of 313,414 people from the previous year. This downward trend, continuous since 2021, is attributed to the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the country's complex economic situation, increased mortality, persistent aging, and high internal and external migration. The National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) highlighted that the death toll of 136,214 was nearly double the 68,064 births recorded, which is the lowest number of births in recent decades.
The natural population growth rate plummeted to -7.1 per 1,000 inhabitants, indicating that Cuba is losing population even before accounting for migration. This places Cuba as the country with the slowest natural growth rate in the region. The total fertility rate remained at a historic low of 1.29 children per woman for the second consecutive year, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1. The infant mortality rate also rose to 9.9 per 1,000 live births, a substantial increase from 4.0 in 2018.
The demographic crisis is further compounded by a rapidly aging population, with 26.7% of Cubans aged 60 or older, making Cuba the oldest country in Latin America and the Caribbean. The median age in the country is 45.0 years. Migration plays a significant role in the overall decline, with a net migration of -245,264 in 2025. This emigration disproportionately affects the working-age population, with Cuba losing 1,259,894 working-age individuals in just five years, critically impacting the nation's productive capacity.
Demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos estimates that the real population at the end of 2024 was even lower at 8,025,624, approximately 24% less than in 2020. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has warned that if current trends persist, Cuba's population could shrink to 5.6 million inhabitants by 2100. Official statistics and independent expert assessments reveal an unprecedented demographic contraction outside of a wartime context, described by some as a "demographic emptying" indicative of a "quasi-permanent polycrisis."
