Nigeria's petrol imports dramatically increased in June 2026, rising by 207% from May. According to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), daily imports jumped from 5.9 million liters in May to 18.1 million liters in June, totaling 543 million liters for the month, up from 182.9 million liters in May. This surge in imports contributes significantly to the demand for foreign exchange, consequently pressuring the naira.
The Dangote Refinery, despite operating at an average capacity utilization of 101.36% and asserting its ability to meet Nigeria's domestic fuel needs, has started exporting a substantial portion of its production. This shift is primarily driven by the refinery's inability to convert naira proceeds from domestic sales into US dollars, which are needed to purchase crude oil from international suppliers. The 'naira-for-crude' arrangement has faltered, with the refinery receiving only about 4 million barrels of crude oil monthly under the deal, far short of the projected 13 million barrels.
To address this currency mismatch and secure necessary foreign exchange, Dangote Refinery recently began selling its petroleum products, including petrol and diesel, in dollars to local marketers. The ex-depot price for petrol is now set at $0.779 per liter, diesel at $1.087 per liter, and aviation fuel at $0.942 per liter. This move has drawn criticism from petroleum marketers who anticipate increased pressure on local fuel prices, reversing some of the relief that followed the initial rollout of the naira-for-crude deal. While NMDPRA acknowledges the refinery's right to recover costs, analysts warn that this dollar-denominated pricing will add costs and logistical friction for marketers, likely leading to higher retail prices for consumers.
Despite the Dangote Refinery's high production, domestic petrol supply in Nigeria fell by 21.7% from 41.5 million liters per day in May to 32.5 million liters per day in June. The gap between what the refinery produced (39.1 million liters per day) and what reached the domestic market (32.5 million liters per day) suggests an increase in refinery exports. This situation, where local refining capacity is rising but accompanied by a swelling import bill, is closely watched by traders and economists due to its implications for Nigeria's foreign exchange market.
