Iran maintains a formidable ballistic missile program, with approximately 70% of its mobile launchers and 70% of its prewar missile stockpile still intact. U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran has regained access to roughly 90% of its underground missile storage and launch facilities, which are now considered partially or fully operational. Most concerning is Iran's restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, threatening American warships and oil tankers. These findings contradict earlier public assurances from U.S. officials about the extent of damage inflicted on Iran's military assets.
U.S. officials have noted that Iran is adapting to modern defenses by firing high-speed, maneuverable missiles at U.S. bases in the region. Iranian leaders have shown interest in employing maneuverable reentry vehicles (MRVs) to enhance missile accuracy and evade anti-ballistic missile systems. The reported circular error probable (CEP) for Iranian medium-range ballistic missiles ranges between 20 and 500 meters, and MRVs can improve this accuracy while making individual projectiles harder to intercept and more destructive. These technological advancements follow lessons learned from conflicts, including the 12-Day June 2025 War.
Iran possesses the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the region, with Israeli intelligence reports suggesting an inventory of 2,500 missiles after a previous conflict. The country's missile program serves as a critical deterrence, given its limited air force and air defenses. Tehran has an estimated 2,000 midrange ballistic missiles capable of reaching across the region, alongside significant stockpiles of short-range missiles targeting U.S. bases in the Gulf and ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has historically leveraged these missiles for coercion, defense, and punishment, even employing advanced warning signals in some retaliatory strikes to avoid broader conflict.
