SpaceX's initial lockup period for its IPO shares is set to expire in early August, releasing approximately 911.5 million shares onto the market. These shares are valued at around $123 billion based on recent prices, significantly more than the $86 billion worth of shares currently available for trading on the Nasdaq. The company’s stock has already dipped below its $135 IPO price, closing at $135.27 on July 15, after a post-IPO record close that valued the company at $2.1 trillion.
This release, expected two trading days after SpaceX's first quarterly earnings report (anticipated in early August but not yet formally scheduled), represents between 20% and 30% of total shares. An additional 455.8 million shares would be released if the stock consistently trades at 30% above its IPO price, or $175.50, for five of 10 trading days leading up to the report, a condition not currently met. By December 8, 2026, about 40% of all SpaceX shares are expected to be freely tradable, with the remaining 60%, including Elon Musk's stake, locked until mid-2027.
The potential influx of shares is causing concern among some investors. SpaceX implemented a staggered release schedule, with smaller tranches unlocking every two to three weeks from late August through late October, and another 28% after the third-quarter report, differing from the standard 180-day lockup. Analysts, however, remain largely optimistic, with 27 out of 32 recommending a buy, four neutral, and only one recommending a sell, though some advise caution due to the impending lockup expirations. The company's Starlink segment performed strongly in 2025 with $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating income, but its newly acquired AI segment lost $6.4 billion in 2026.
