Global hunger has decreased for the third year in a row, largely due to a reduction in commodity prices. However, this positive trend is facing significant risks from persistent conflicts, particularly in regions like the Middle East and parts of Africa, and the re-emergence of the El Niño weather phenomenon. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Program (WFP) issued a joint report highlighting that conditions are expected to worsen in 13 hotspots between June and November 2026, with an estimated 266 million people already experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity.
The situation is compounded by a drastic 59% drop in funding for food assistance and related programs since 2022, even as the need for aid has surged. Conflict and violence are identified as the primary drivers of hunger in almost all hotspots, exacerbated by economic shocks and the anticipated impact of El Niño, which could bring severe droughts and floods to vulnerable areas. Additional pressures, such as the spillover effects from the Middle East conflict and an Ebola outbreak in eastern Congo, are further disrupting markets, livelihoods, and aid access.
There is a high probability, between 61% and 87%, of El Niño emerging by mid-2026 and continuing into 2027. If this occurs, key rice-producing regions in South Asia, Southern Africa, and parts of East Asia could see a 20% to 50% decrease in output, further deepening food insecurity in already vulnerable countries. Global food supplies remain broadly adequate, but higher costs, supply chain disruptions, and an expected decline in major cereal production from 2025 record levels continue to put pressure on prices. Fertilizer prices, for example, increased by 35% in the first five months of 2026 compared to the same period last year, impacting farmer margins and future harvests.
