America's agricultural sector is grappling with persistent financial distress, marked by projected losses of $31 billion in 2026 and a deepening $32 billion in 2027 for nine principal crops, even with significant federal assistance. The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) analysis, utilizing data from the USDA-ERS, WASDE, NASS, and FAPRI, indicates that every major crop is expected to remain below breakeven on a per-acre basis in 2027.
Individual crop losses are substantial, with corn alone projected to account for $15.8 billion in losses, followed by soybeans at $11.6 billion, wheat at $6.6 billion, and cotton at $3.8 billion in 2027. On a per-acre basis, these losses are increasing; for instance, corn losses are set to rise from $131 per acre in 2026 to $167 in 2027, and soybean losses from $80 to $138 per acre. Specialty crop farmers are also enduring significant financial strain, with an estimated $7 billion in losses for six representative crops in 2025, and continued difficult market conditions into 2026, including below-breakeven prices and acreage reductions.
These financial woes are primarily driven by elevated production costs, particularly for fertilizer and fuel, which have been pressured by global instability, including the conflict with Iran. Commodity prices remain low, and export sales have been impacted by trade policies. Despite substantial government intervention, including $23 billion in economic assistance through programs like the American Relief Act and the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, the farm economy continues to struggle, with 2027 projected to be the sixth consecutive year of negative returns over total costs for many major row crops. The President has requested an additional $11 billion in agricultural assistance from Congress to address these deepening losses, highlighting the critical need for continued support to stabilize the sector and ensure food security.
