Goldman Sachs has indicated that renewed tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could significantly delay the recovery of Middle Eastern oil supplies. The investment bank noted that Persian Gulf crude production in June was approximately 10.5 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, and while producers have started reopening shut-in wells, Hormuz disruptions could hinder this recovery, according to analysts including Yulia Zhetkova Grigsby.
If the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil shipments, remains largely closed to normal traffic for another month, Goldman Sachs projects Brent crude prices could average over $100 per barrel throughout the second half of 2026. Specifically, an extended closure could see Brent Crude average $120 per barrel in the third quarter and $115 in the final quarter of the year. This contrasts with earlier forecasts that anticipated Brent crude trading at an average of $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter if exports normalized by the end of June.
The firm initially lowered its oil price forecasts when flows through Hormuz appeared to pick up, even warning of a potential crude glut. However, the recent attacks on tankers have underscored the elevated risks of transit, causing shippers to hesitate due to the unclear ceasefire status. Goldman Sachs now estimates that oil flows through the Persian Gulf have retreated to roughly 70% of normal, down from over 80% after Hormuz initially reopened. The bank also warned that the economic impact of rising oil prices could be more severe than implied by price levels alone, especially given the potential for energy product shortages and the unprecedented scale of the shock.
