Lavazza, the Italian coffee giant, has indicated that elevated coffee prices are unlikely to ease for at least two years, largely due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the impacts of climate change. The company's chairman, Giuseppe Lavazza, described the current market as "quite unprecedented," emphasizing that "volatility is the new constant." Since 2021, Arabica coffee prices have surged by 230%, while Robusta has seen an even steeper increase of 325%, with both varieties reaching multi-month highs recently.
Despite these record price hikes, UK consumers have demonstrated "high resilience." Lavazza reported that UK sales increased last year, and consumers are increasingly turning to whole beans for home brewing—a trend that started during the pandemic and shows no signs of slowing. For instance, the price of a 1kg bag of Lavazza’s Qualita Rossa beans is now around £22.50. The cost of a flat white at Lavazza’s London cafe has also risen, from £4 to £4.40 for takeaway and from £5.50 to £6.50 for dine-in, reflecting these increased costs. Lavazza anticipates that the price of a 1kg bag of beans could further increase by 20% to 25% in the coming year.
The price surge is exacerbated by factors such as heavy rains disrupting Brazil's coffee harvest, potentially affecting crop quality, and Brazilian farmers holding back sales in anticipation of even higher prices, especially with the looming El Nino weather event. Giuseppe Lavazza also noted that the market now exhibits "fundamental changes compared to the past" and that the coffee supply chain is "dramatically under pressure." Lavazza itself had a strong year in the UK, with revenue rising by 13% to £124.9 million in 2025. To address sustainability concerns, the company plans to launch its new Tabli home coffee system, featuring individually packaged, plastic-free coffee tabs, in the UK in September.
