U.S. companies have received $71 billion in tariff refunds, providing some relief from inflation triggered by the ongoing Iran war, according to a July 17, 2026 Fortune article. This comes after the Supreme Court ruled in February that President Trump could not use emergency powers to impose tariffs, leading to the need for these refunds. The administration is now attempting to establish new tariff mechanisms to replace the lost revenue.
Following the Supreme Court's decision, tariff revenue for the U.S. Treasury dwindled, with a $42 million shortfall in May and a significant $25.6 billion loss in June as refunds exceeded new collections. Customs and Border Protection had accepted approximately $122 billion in refunds for processing, with about $86 billion already sent to the Treasury for disbursement. Importers still awaiting refunds from entries liquidated over 80 days ago, representing roughly $11 billion of the total $166 billion collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs, are expected to have the refund process open to them in late July.
The Trump administration is pushing to implement new tariffs through Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Two major investigations are underway: one targeting 60 countries for alleged forced labor practices, and another accusing 16 trading partners, including China and the EU, of overproducing goods. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has proposed tariffs of 10% on 16 countries and 12.5% on 44 for the forced labor issue, with these expected to be in place by the July 24 deadline, replacing expiring Section 122 tariffs. While Section 301 tariffs offer more legal durability, their widespread application is expected to face legal challenges, according to trade attorneys.
Ryan Majerus, a trade lawyer, anticipates that the administration will propose additional large tariffs in the coming months from the overproduction investigation, likely timed to take effect after the midterm elections. While a shift to Section 301 tariffs may bring slightly more certainty compared to the previous IEEPA tariffs, businesses remain hesitant due to ongoing policy unpredictability.
