The article, titled "Trade Armageddon has failed to materialize," highlights the unexpected resilience of global trade despite significant disruptions. By the end of 2025, the Trump administration had implemented the highest US import tariffs since World War II, reaching an effective rate of over 10% globally and more than 35% for China by early December 2025. Despite these measures, an outright trade war was avoided, and global trade showed surprising durability.
Experts note a shift in corporate strategy, with CEOs now prioritizing "risk first" rather than "cost first," a departure from a decade ago. This emphasis on resilience is becoming a strategic asset for many companies operating in an increasingly volatile world. This new approach reflects a recognition that supply chains are lengthening and require greater robustness against potential disruptions.
Even with tariffs causing a 40% year-on-year drop in Chinese exports to the US during the third quarter of 2025, China's trade surplus with the rest of the world continued to expand, exceeding $1 trillion by November of that year. This indicates that while US-China trade relations faced significant headwinds, China managed to offset these impacts through other markets, underscoring the adaptability of global trade networks.
