Spot LNG prices in Northeast Asia surged by $1.30 week-on-week, reaching $17.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for deliveries four to eight weeks ahead. This increase is largely attributed to renewed tensions between the United States and Iran, which are causing unease in Asian energy markets regarding the continued transit of LNG through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the increased tensions, transit traffic through the strait has not completely halted.
Energy Intelligence assessments indicate that Southwest European spot LNG prices also saw a significant jump, rising by $2.55 week-on-week to $17.00/MMBtu. This reflects a broader market reaction to the geopolitical instability affecting key global shipping lanes.
Market analysts from Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) project further bullish risks for LNG prices in Q3 2026, anticipating that cooling demand will peak and inventories will be thinner. EIR's 2026 outlook for the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) is $18/MMBtu, while the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe is forecasted at $16/MMBtu, both figures exceeding current forward strips of approximately $16/MMBtu and $14/MMBtu respectively.
Previously in March 2026, Asian spot LNG prices had spiked to a three-year peak of $25.40/MMBtu due to the Middle East conflict forcing a shutdown at a major Qatari export plant and halting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. While current prices are lower than these March peaks, the continuous geopolitical uncertainty, restricted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and Europe's ongoing shift from Russian gas are maintaining upward pressure on the market. Additionally, seasonal demand for air conditioning is expected to bolster prices throughout the summer months.
