BHP Group announced a larger-than-expected decrease in its fourth-quarter copper production, hit by reduced output at Escondida and Pampa Norte. The company produced 491.9 thousand metric tons of copper in the quarter ending June 30, falling slightly below Visible Alpha's estimate of 492.7 thousand metric tons and down from 516.2 thousand metric tons in the same period last year. This decline was exacerbated by an unexpected underground conveyor belt failure at Carrapateena in South Australia, which is expected to impact up to eight weeks of mine production.
Looking ahead, BHP anticipates copper production for fiscal year 2027 to range between 1,650 and 1,800 thousand metric tons. This represents a significant decrease compared to the fiscal year 2026 output of 1,952.8 thousand metric tons. The primary reason for this expected decline is a forecast reduction in ore grades at its flagship Escondida mine in Chile.
In addition to copper, BHP's Western Australia iron ore output for the quarter was 74.8 million metric tons, missing the Visible Alpha consensus of 75.1 million metric tons and down from 77.5 million metric tons a year ago. Despite these production challenges, the company approved $900 million for the Ministers North iron ore project in Pilbara, with first output projected for fiscal year 2029. Average realized iron ore prices saw a 3% increase, reaching $84.56 per wet metric ton in fiscal year 2026. The copper market is forecasted to face a tighter supply environment, with a projected deficit of 150 thousand metric tons of refined copper in 2026 according to the International Copper Study Group.
