Novo Nordisk announced that its oral Wegovy pill demonstrates significantly greater weight loss and fewer side effects compared to Eli Lilly's new oral GLP-1 drug, Foundayo, which was recently approved. An indirect comparison study by Novo Nordisk, which analyzed previously published studies of both medicines, showed that oral Wegovy led to an average of 16.6% weight loss, while Foundayo resulted in 12.4% weight loss. Novo also reported that Foundayo had a 14 times higher discontinuation rate due to side effects. These findings, while not from a head-to-head randomized controlled trial, suggest a strong market advantage for Novo's product.
The launch of Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy in the U.S. has been highly successful, with over 600,000 patients starting the medication since January. This rapid uptake is considered one of the best new medicine launches ever, even surpassing the initial adoption of injectable versions. Conversely, expectations for Foundayo sales have been revised downwards significantly, with RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh lowering projections from $4 billion to $1.6 billion. Barclays analyst James Gordon noted a flattening in new prescriptions for starter doses of oral Wegovy, which he attributed to physicians potentially awaiting Foundayo's launch.
Despite the perceived inconvenience of oral Wegovy's dosing restrictions – requiring it to be taken on an empty stomach with a small amount of water, and waiting 30 minutes before eating – Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar dismissed concerns about its impact on uptake. Eli Lilly's CEO Dave Ricks countered that Foundayo is more accessible due to its lack of food restrictions. However, Novo Nordisk's separate analysis indicated that 84% of patients favored a drug profile similar to Wegovy's over Foundayo's, further supporting Novo's market position. This competitive climate is expected to intensify as both companies vie for dominance in the oral GLP-1 market, which J.P. Morgan projects could reach $200 billion by the end of the decade.
