Following heightened hostilities between the US and Iran, including US strikes and a declared blockade by President Trump, a significant portion of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is now occurring with transponders turned off. Preliminary data shows that "dark crossings" of commodity carriers outnumbered observable passages for several days, signaling a shift in shipping behavior to navigate the volatile situation. This stealth activity is concentrated on the southern corridor along the Omani coast, which has seen an uptick in Iranian attacks.
The US announced it would act as the "guardian of the Hormuz Strait" and impose a 20% toll on all cargo, which could generate around $250 million daily from an estimated $1.2 billion in daily fuel traffic. Iran, however, rejected this unilateral claim, stating it is the true guardian of the strait and that any tolls would be set by them, adding that "20% is of course too much. We will be fair." The UN's shipping agency also criticized Trump's proposal, citing no legal basis for mandatory tolls on international navigation straits.
Oil prices reacted sharply, with Brent futures jumping over 9% and US crude futures seeing their largest daily gain since April 29, settling at their highest since June 15. The increased insurance costs and risks associated with transit through Hormuz have led some vessels to conduct ship-to-ship oil transfers off Oman's coast, bypassing the strait entirely. Overall tanker traffic through the strait has fallen to its lowest level in two months, with a 52% decline in activity compared to the previous week, according to MarineTraffic.
