Iran has shipped an estimated 55 million barrels of crude oil and products since the temporary lifting of a US naval blockade in mid-June, according to Brett Erickson of Obsidian Risk Advisors. This surge in exports allowed Tehran to clear onshore storage and move tankers out of the region before potential re-imposition of US restrictions. Another monitoring service, TankerTrackers, puts the figure closer to 60 million barrels since mid-June. This demonstrates Iran's ability to capitalize on the period of eased restrictions and move significant volumes of oil to market.
During the first half of 2026, Iran generated over $23 billion from oil sales, surpassing its own pre-war forecasts by about 30 percent. This was partly due to a doubling of oil prices during the war, with Iran selling oil at about $117 per barrel in May, up from the pre-war sanctioned price of $53 per barrel. Tehran had projected $35.5 billion in oil revenues for the entire year, assuming exports of 1.77 million barrels per day at $55 per barrel. The $23 billion achieved in the first half significantly exceeds the $17.75 billion that would have been expected by mid-year based on their annual projection.
The memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Iran and the US, signed in mid-June, lifted the American blockade of Iranian ports and allowed the sale of Iranian oil for 60 days, authorized by General License X through August 21, 2026. This enabled Iran to move approximately 55 million barrels in the first 14 days of the MOU. While the blockade caused damage to other sectors of Iran's economy, it proved counterproductive in restricting oil revenue, as the scarcity created by the war drove up oil prices.
However, the US announced that the sanctions waiver would be revoked effective July 17, following strikes on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, reinstating oil sanctions. If the blockade were to resume, TankerTrackers estimates Iran would be left with approximately 50 million barrels of crude oil and refined products. Despite the US attempts to curb Iran's revenue, Tehran has strategically positioned itself to rake in billions through these sales.
