Russia's crude oil production fell to 8.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in May 2026, marking a 5% decrease compared to the same period last year and 10% below its stated monthly production target. This decline represents the lowest output in at least 2.5 years and is part of a six-month trend of decreasing production, shedding approximately 370,000 bpd since November 2025. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has consequently revised its 2026 Russian crude production outlook downwards by 200,000 bpd to 8.95 million bpd.
The primary driver for this significant drop is Ukraine's intensified drone attack campaign on Russian energy infrastructure. These attacks have doubled since the start of 2026, with longer-range drones now reaching previously safe production areas. The cumulative damage to refineries and facilities is outpacing repair efforts, leading to recurring shutdowns and "unexpected maintenance issues," as acknowledged by Russia in June 2026. For example, the Omsk refinery, Russia's largest, was hit by a drone in May, and 90% of Russia’s prewar refining capacity is now within Ukraine's reach.
Despite the reduction in crude output, Russia's crude and product exports have remained relatively stable at approximately 7.4 million bpd year-over-year. This implies that Russia is either reducing domestic consumption or drawing down existing inventories to maintain export volumes. Given that its federal budget heavily relies on oil revenue, preserving export flows to buyers in India and China, among others, is a strategic priority, even if it means depleting domestic reserves. The IEA's 2026 forecast of 8.95 million bpd suggests an expectation of some production recovery in the latter half of the year, although this is viewed as an optimistic assumption given Ukraine's expanding drone capabilities. Crude oil prices have remained moderate, but oil product prices are affected by ongoing refinery disruptions.
