Global cocoa prices have experienced a significant rebound, reaching multi-month highs after an earlier decline from record levels seen in mid-2024. Futures contracts on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York, specifically September cocoa futures, were trading at $6,366 per metric tonne as of July 10, 2026, marking a 24-week high. The market has gained nearly 40% in the past four weeks, with widening price differences between near-term and longer-dated contracts signaling expectations of continued volatility and sustained high prices.
This surge is primarily attributed to growing concerns over supply disruptions and adverse weather conditions in major West African cocoa-producing countries like Ivory Coast and Ghana. Heavy rainfall in these regions has caused flooding in plantations and disrupted access, further exacerbated by the El Niño weather pattern. El Niño is expected to bring warmer and drier conditions, stressing cocoa trees and reducing yields, with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimating a 67% chance of a "Super El Niño" this year.
Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop indicate below-average development of young cocoa pods (cherelle formation), signaling a weak outlook for the main harvest starting in September. Initial estimates suggest the 2026/27 harvest could fall between 1.7 million and 1.8 million metric tonnes, down from an estimated 2.2 million metric tonnes in the current season. Some pod counters and exporters in Ivory Coast project an even sharper decline, with the main crop for 2026/27 expected to be 1.35-1.45 million metric tons, a drop of over 10% from the estimated 1.6 million this season. Heavy rainfall has already led to over 20% of flowers and young pods dying between May and June, also encouraging the spread of black pod disease.
Despite these supply concerns, there have been mixed signals regarding overall supply and demand. Ivory Coast had previously boosted its estimate of cocoa reaching its ports by over 260,000 metric tons for the current season, with cumulative shipments up 20% year-over-year. However, the country also projected a 10.8% year-over-year drop in its 2025/26 cocoa production to 1.65 million metric tons. Globally, StoneX cut its 2026/27 cocoa surplus estimate to 149,000 metric tons from an earlier 267,000 metric tons, and its 2025/26 forecast to 247,000 metric tons from 287,000 metric tons. Demand indicators have also been mixed, with North American Q1 cocoa grindings falling 3.8% and European Q1 grindings down 7.8%, while Asian Q1 grindings unexpectedly rose 5.2%. Barry Callebaut, a major chocolate producer, saw a 5.7% increase in sales volume, but analysts remain concerned about the impact of surging cocoa prices on profitability.
