The US renewed strikes against Iran after President Trump declared the ceasefire to be "over," calling the strikes "retribution" for Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command stated the bombing campaign would "further degrade [Iran's] ability to threaten freedom of navigation" in the strait, a crucial passage for a fifth of global oil supplies. Trump warned of severe consequences if Iran retaliates, posting on Truth Social, "If it happens again, it will get much worse!"
Oil prices reacted to the escalating conflict; Brent crude initially surged past $80 a barrel to a two-week high before dipping below $78. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cautioned that renewed conflict risks driving up inflation, harming supply chains, and negatively impacting financial markets. Despite the renewed aggression, Trump insisted he did not want a full-blown war and stated that "anything that happens is going to be over very quickly." However, the breakdown of the truce has made markets anxious about potential escalation.
The strikes followed Iranian attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz between Monday and Tuesday. In response, the US revoked a waiver permitting Iranian oil sales, and CENTCOM launched an assault reportedly four to five times larger than previous actions, targeting air defenses, coastal radar, anti-ship missile sites, and Revolutionary Guard small boats. This event marks a significant setback for an interim agreement, known as a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), reached in June between Washington and Tehran to end the war, which included a 60-day ceasefire and safe passage for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The renewed hostilities could lead to Iran once again shutting the strait, potentially causing a new energy supply crisis.
