Disney's live-action “Moana” remake is facing an uncertain start at the box office, with tracking services projecting a domestic opening weekend of $60 million to $65 million from 3,875 North American theaters. This is only slightly above the original 2016 animated film's $56 million opening, not adjusted for inflation. Some exhibitors and rivals are even predicting a softer debut closer to $40 million. This puts significant pressure on the film, given its massive $250 million production budget before marketing costs.
International audiences are expected to contribute significantly, with an estimated $70 million to $75 million in its international debut, aiming for a global opening of $130 million. However, domestically, “Moana” is tracking among the lower openings for Disney's live-action remakes, potentially joining films like 2019’s “Dumbo” ($45 million) and 2025’s “Snow White” ($42 million) as box office disappointments. By contrast, “Lilo & Stitch,” “The Lion King,” and “Beauty and the Beast” each opened above $100 million.
The film, directed by Thomas Kail, stars Catherine Laga’aia as Moana and Dwayne Johnson reprising his role as Maui. Reviews have been unfavorable, with a 33% Rotten Tomatoes score. Adding to the concern is the recent release of "Moana 2" in November 2024, which generated $225 million over its five-day Thanksgiving opening domestically and went on to gross over $1 billion worldwide. This proximity has led to questions about whether audiences are experiencing “Moana” fatigue, impacting interest in the live-action version despite high public awareness.
Box office analysts are wary, with some forecasts for the domestic opening collapsing from an early high of $85 million to a range of $45 million to $72 million. Industry accounting suggests the film needs to earn approximately 2.5 times its production cost worldwide to be profitable, placing its break-even point between $500 million and $700 million globally, factoring in an estimated $100 million to $150 million in global marketing spend. The film's high awareness (80%) but low interest (49%) among surveyed moviegoers, according to The Quorum, indicates a potential disconnect that could result in underperformance.
