Cencosud, a major Latin American retailer, saw its shares plummet 25.7% year-to-date by Thursday, July 8, 2026, making it the most underperforming stock on the S&P IPSA. This reversal erases gains from the previous year and reflects a difficult period for the company, which reported first-quarter results below market expectations. The decline is attributed to a weaker consumption outlook, competitive pressures, and the broader impact of international conflicts.
Despite Cencosud's ongoing restructuring and internal adjustments, the company reported decreases in revenue across most segments, except for Cenco Malls, and in its primary markets of Chile, Argentina, and the United States. Analysts point to the general weakness of the Chilean stock market, exacerbated by global conflicts, and a widespread decline in consumer spending as key factors. Macarena Gutiérrez, a senior equity analyst at Credicorp Capital, noted that the current valuation of Cencosud's shares presents a significant discount, with a target price of $3,150 per share indicating a potential return of nearly 50% despite the downward revision of Q1 expectations.
The company's Adjusted EBITDA margin also declined to 8.4% over a 12-month trailing period, its lowest since the 2020 pandemic. Alicia Larraín, an equity analyst at MBI Corredores de Bolsa, highlighted that sales have been affected by persistent weakness and lack of dynamism in the construction sector in Chile and Argentina, particularly impacting the home improvement business. The supermarket segment, which accounts for approximately 80% of Cencosud's revenue, has struggled to dilute costs due to cautious and price-sensitive consumers. Both analysts agree that the challenging market conditions, marked by reduced consumer spending and ongoing international uncertainty, will likely continue to pressure the industry and Cencosud in the coming months, though they remain optimistic about its long-term potential as its transformation efforts take hold.
