The 2026 FIFA World Cup is proving to be the biggest event in prediction market history, driving record trading volumes and significant financial opportunities. Bernstein analysts project that the month-long tournament could generate roughly $3 billion in additional wagers and drive as much as $10 billion in betting volume across sports-betting and prediction-market platforms. This surge is partly due to the expanded field of 48 national teams and over 100 matches, increasing "bettable inventory" by approximately 60% compared to previous tournaments. Daily trading volumes saw a significant jump from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during last season's Super Bowl.
Robinhood, in particular, is poised for significant gains from this World Cup betting boom. Bernstein projects Robinhood’s prediction market revenue to increase from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing a 286% year-over-year increase. This projected figure could account for about 17% of Robinhood's transactional revenue and 10% of its total revenue in 2026. The company's partnership with Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange, has been a key differentiator, with Rothera trading approximately 200 million contracts in its first 18 days, nearly 100% of which were FIFA World Cup and MLB contracts. Robinhood's competitive offerings, including a $0.01 commission per contract and fee reductions for Gold subscribers, are leveraging its user base.
While the World Cup fuels a betting boom in some regions, it also highlights a growing global disparity in access to prediction markets. Fans in the U.S. can freely participate, collectively wagering billions, but other countries are making access more difficult or restricting it entirely. Beyond Robinhood, other publicly traded companies like DraftKings and Coinbase are also expected to benefit from the World Cup's impact on betting volumes. The expansion of contract types and trading venues, such as Polymarket’s private company event contracts and Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated perpetual futures on cryptocurrencies, is further contributing to increased engagement during this period. Binance Research estimates annual sports prediction market volumes could reach $739 billion by 2030, a substantial increase from about $248 billion in 2026.
