Corn and soybean futures declined on Thursday as updated weather forecasts for the US Midwest eased fears of extreme heat that could stress crops during a crucial growth phase. This reduction in the anticipated severity of the heatwave led to profit-taking by traders who had driven prices higher on earlier concerns. Specifically, December corn on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) finished down 8 cents at $4.56-1/4 per bushel, having reached an intraday high of $4.65-3/4. Similarly, November soybeans settled down 5-1/2 cents at $11.92-1/4 per bushel after touching $12.04.
The decline also came ahead of the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA, scheduled for Friday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect old crop US corn stocks to be cut by 66 million bushels to 2.079 billion bushels, and new crop carryout to decrease by 61 million bushels to 1.899 billion bushels. This anticipation of a potential tightening of the supply-demand balance was partially offset by the improved weather outlook, creating a "tug-of-war" between these factors.
Despite the overall decline, the market saw some notable activity. USDA confirmed private sales of 472,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China, and Reuters reported that China's state grain trader COFCO purchased at least 10 cargoes, or approximately 600,000 tonnes, of US soybeans this week. These sales boosted hopes for increased Chinese demand for US beans. However, even with these robust sales, the soybean market still faded, indicating that weather relief and pre-WASDE positioning were stronger influences. Wheat prices also followed corn and soybeans lower, with the benchmark September contract finishing down 10-3/4 cents at $6.07-3/4 a bushel, retreating from a one-month high.
Export sales data released by the USDA showed old crop corn bookings of 565,810 metric tons for the week of July 2, which was the second lowest total for the marketing year and down 55.2% from the same week last year. Mexico was the top buyer with 168,900 metric tons. New crop sales were 401,667 metric tons, down 44.8% from the equivalent week in 2025, with South Korea being the largest purchaser at 136,000 metric tons. Accumulated sales for 2026/27 are still 20.8% above last year, indicating healthy forward demand despite weekly fluctuations.
Alan Brugler, with A&N Economics, noted that markets might have been overbought, reaching resistance levels around $4.65 to $4.73 for the December chart, prompting profit-taking before the USDA report. He also pointed out that while short-term US weather improved, a new heatwave in France is hitting already damaged fields, with potential yield losses of about one-third. This contrasting global situation adds to market volatility and prevents a deeper sell-off, keeping physical prices in Europe and the Black Sea relatively firm.
