Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have effectively been halted. Over 1,000 ships, including oil tankers and commercial vessels, are currently waiting to pass as of March 8. Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Research at J.P. Morgan, highlighted the critical nature of the Strait, stating that approximately 15% of the global oil supply, or 60 million barrels per day, has no alternative route and must pass through the Gulf.
Shipowners are grappling with the heightened risks in the region. After President Donald Trump declared the US ceasefire with Iran over, three out of five shipowners surveyed by Bloomberg stated they were assessing the safety of transit, while two had not yet changed their policies. This reflects a mixed picture of willingness to continue transiting the vital conduit for energy flows.
Only a handful of oil carriers were observed transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, even after previous strikes on ships had unnerved owners. However, there's also a report indicating that Iran is considering a short-term pause to its shipments through the Strait to avoid provoking a US blockade and to preserve ongoing peace talks. This potential pause indicates a desire to de-escalate tensions at a sensitive diplomatic juncture, as Washington and Tehran are in the process of arranging another face-to-face meeting.
