Oil analyst Amrita Sen, founder and director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects, stated on April 8, 2026, that the Strait of Hormuz is "by no means open for business" despite a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran. She highlighted that the global oil market faces further demand destruction due to this closure.
While an interim agreement between the US and Iran was expected to reopen the Strait and restore oil and gas flows, analysts warned on June 15, 2026, that a return to normal trade could take months. Rebuilding confidence among shipowners, insurers, and refiners will be a prolonged process, especially as many buyers have already secured alternative supplies and routes.
Adding to the uncertainty, Iran was reportedly considering a short-term pause in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz as of April 14, 2026. This was to avoid testing a US blockade and potentially derailing a new round of peace talks. This highlights Iran's desire to avoid immediate escalation at a sensitive diplomatic juncture, with Washington and Tehran arranging another face-to-face meeting.
The overall situation in the Strait remains highly complex and confusing. Investment research firm Citrini Research deployed an analyst to the region to understand the new rules regarding passage through the Strait, indicating significant uncertainty in how the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is managing access. Despite the ceasefire, the operational and geopolitical landscape suggests a protracted period before trade through the Strait of Hormuz returns to pre-conflict levels.
