US oil groups are poised to receive a $63 billion windfall from the 2026 Iran war, a scenario that is likely to put them in direct conflict with President Donald Trump's administration, which is grappling with surging gasoline prices. The conflict has severely disrupted global oil supplies, particularly through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of the world's oil, triggering a substantial increase in crude oil prices.
Following the conflict's onset on February 28, 2026, Brent crude oil prices surged by 10-13% to around $80-$82 per barrel, and then further jumped to $83 per barrel by March 5. Gasoline prices in the US rose 7.5% to $3.20 per gallon, eventually exceeding $4 per gallon, the highest since late 2023. Analysts are concerned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could cross $100, with Goldman Sachs predicting US gasoline prices could reach $3.50 per gallon, making inflation a persistent issue.
The substantial profit gains for oil companies due to the supply disruption and price hikes create a political dilemma for Trump, who has previously criticized energy companies for perceived profiteering. The war has been described by the International Energy Agency as the "greatest global energy security challenge in history," with lost oil production estimated at 600-700 million barrels currently, and potentially reaching one billion barrels, pushing prices towards $5.00 per barrel according to the IEA.
