The US Treasury Department responded to recent tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz by revoking a waiver that had permitted the sale of Iranian oil. The Office of Foreign Assets Control announced that no new transactions for Iranian oil could take place on or after July 7, 2026. This action comes after a previous 60-day waiver, issued alongside an interim peace agreement, was set to expire on August 21, 2026.
This decision by the US is seen as jeopardizing the fragile interim peace deal between Washington and Tehran. The revocation of the waiver signals a hardening stance by the US following the attacks.
While the market responded with oil prices rebounding as fresh US military strikes in Iran clouded the outlook for the interim deal, an earlier analysis in March 2026 suggested that even significant initial jumps in oil prices, perhaps 10%-15% to $80-plus a barrel for Brent crude, might not constitute a full-blown historic oil shock due to global supply levels. However, the current situation still retains the risk of further price volatility and disruption to shipping lanes.
