NATO members are employing a strategy of "Trump management" at the Ankara summit to avoid conflict with the U.S. President. This involves highlighting significant increases in defense spending, such as the extra $139 billion spent by allies since 2025, referred to by NATO chief Mark Rutte as the "Trump trillion." The goal is to keep the focus on financial contributions and avoid more contentious issues, with Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken emphasizing the need for diplomatic engagement to keep Trump "happy and satisfied."
The strategy also includes focusing on less divisive topics like the defense industry, with plans for an industry side event to announce "double digit" billions in procurement deals. Allies are also signaling support on the volatile ceasefire in Iran, agreeing to allude to the U.S. war in Iran in the summit declaration and demanding an open Strait of Hormuz and no nuclear weapons for Tehran. This reflects both a genuine challenge in transforming spending into battlefield equipment and a deliberate effort to entice Trump with promises of arms deals benefiting U.S. industry.
Despite these efforts, Trump's unpredictability remains a concern, with potential triggers including lingering anger over defense spending, U.S. access to European bases, and the situation in Iran. Some allies privately acknowledge that many procurement deals may be repackaged rather than representing significant new pledges. However, there is also a sentiment among some NATO diplomats that the alliance's reliance on appeasing the U.S. President may be nearing an end as non-U.S. defense spending grows, potentially shifting the dynamic in the coming years. There are also fears Trump could demand European contributions to a purported €300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran.
