Recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran have led to a significant escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, causing the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to issue strong warnings against transiting the strait if crew safety cannot be assured. IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez condemned the attacks, highlighting the danger to nearly 6,000 seafarers still stranded in the Gulf and urging states to de-escalate the situation and facilitate safe departures. The attacks included the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker Al Rekayyat, the Saudi Arabia-flagged tanker Wedyan, and the Liberia-flagged Cyprus Prosperity, with the Al Rekayyat reportedly at risk of exploding due to a fire in its engine room. These incidents directly followed a fragile ceasefire agreement a month prior, intended to reopen the crucial waterway.
In response to these attacks, the US launched new strikes against Iranian military targets, hitting over 80 targets including air defense systems and anti-ship missile capabilities, and revoked a temporary sanctions waiver for Iranian oil exports. This marks a major setback to the previous memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. The Joint Maritime Information Center raised the threat level for transit through the strait from "substantial" to "severe," the highest level since June 15, and noted increased hailing and routing pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The escalating situation has significantly impacted shipping and oil markets. Oil prices surged, with Brent crude nearing $76 a barrel and European gas futures rising by approximately 7%. At least four oil and gas tankers have turned back from attempting to transit the strait. While some vessels still transited, the daily average dropped significantly from pre-conflict levels of 125 sailings to 25-40 in the past week, and as low as 16 on July 7, the lowest in nearly three weeks. War-risk insurance rates have soared to eight times their normal cost, covering only 2-4% of hull value, and major container carriers have suspended Hormuz transits, effectively closing the waterway according to an independent tracker. The revocation of Iran's oil export waiver by the White House, described as a crucial concession for Iran to lift its blockade, further exacerbates the instability.
