Electric-powered heavy trucks are rapidly gaining market share in China, with sales in the first half of this year estimated to have risen 175% year-on-year to 76,100 units, accounting for about a quarter of new truck sales. This boom is fueled by government subsidies of up to 95,000 yuan (approximately $13,264) per vehicle and a substantial rollout of charging infrastructure, particularly in industrial corridors. While electric trucks have higher upfront costs, their lower operating expenses make them significantly cheaper over a million kilometers, about 15% less than diesel trucks and 10% less than LNG trucks, according to GL Consulting.
This rapid adoption has surprised analysts, leading them to revise down diesel demand forecasts and bring forward predictions for China's peak oil demand. Rystad Energy, for instance, previously expected a 2026 peak but now anticipates it this year. Consulting firm SCI projects an 11.3 million ton, or 6.3%, drop in China's diesel consumption this year, on par with last year's decline. SANY, a leading electric truck maker, expects electric heavy trucks to account for 70% to 80% of new sales within two to three years.
The swift expansion of charging infrastructure, exemplified by Teld's 800 km corridor linking Shanxi and Shandong provinces, addresses a key barrier to adoption. Although charge times can still extend to 90 minutes and charger availability remains an issue in some areas, the improvements have made long-haul electric trucking more feasible. This shift effectively counters the impact of declining LNG truck sales, which are forecast to hit around 92,000 units in the first half, a 15% drop from the previous year. The overall effect is a significant blow to diesel usage and oil demand from the world's largest crude importer.
