SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq-100 index, prompting several brokerages to initiate coverage with bullish views. J.P. Morgan estimates this inclusion could generate $4.3 billion in passive inflows for SpaceX. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all gave SpaceX top ratings, with Morgan Stanley calling the company "AI's final frontier." Goldman analysts believe SpaceX is well-positioned in space, connectivity, and AI, potentially tapping into multi-trillion-dollar markets over five-plus years. UBS and RBC analysts project thousands of Starship launches annually by 2031, with J.P. Morgan projecting about 5,000, Wells Fargo 4,600, Bernstein 3,500, and UBS more than 1,500 depending on reusability. SpaceX's entry into the index less than a month after its June 12 stock market debut makes it one of the fastest inclusions ever, driven by revised Nasdaq rules.
Despite the bullish analyst sentiment, SpaceX shares were marginally down in premarket trading and fell on its first day as part of the Nasdaq-100. MoffettNathanson, KeyBanc, and Argus Research issued "neutral" ratings, while CFRA was the sole brokerage with a "sell" rating. CFRA had previously stated in June that SpaceX's valuation increasingly depends on unproven initiatives like Starship and xAI, which they view as aggressive given execution risks, capital intensity, and limited visibility into long-term profits. Investors are also scrutinizing Wall Street's attempts to value the newly public company with conventional metrics, moving beyond the faith in Elon Musk's long-term vision.
Concurrently, the broader tech market experienced a rout, particularly affecting chipmakers. The S&P 500 ended lower, weighed down by losses in Micron Technology and other chip stocks amidst growing skepticism about the sustainability of Wall Street's AI-driven rally. Expectations for these companies have become almost impossible to beat, according to Zachary Hill of Horizon Investments. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix saw significant drops, with Samsung's shares slipping 8.3% despite its quarterly profit surging 19 times, and SK Hynix falling 8.3% as it began the formal marketing process for its U.S. listing. Investors are increasingly rotating out of tech stocks into other sectors, re-evaluating the AI trade and seeking better value as valuations in high-beta tech names are tempering.
