The United States has revoked a temporary waiver that allowed Iranian oil sales, a decision that comes in response to recent attacks on two commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The incidents involved a Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker, the Al Rekayyat, and a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker, believed to be the supertanker Wedyan. The Al Rekayyat sent out distress signals after being struck by a "projectile" off the coast of Limah in Oman, resulting in an engine room fire and putting the vessel at risk of exploding. The crew of the Qatari tanker was safely evacuated, while the Saudi vessel also sustained damage.
The attacks occurred during sensitive peace negotiations between the US and Iran, which had paused their war with a preliminary memorandum of understanding (MoU) on June 14, stipulating free shipping through the strait for at least 60 days. Prior to the war, the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway crucial for global energy supplies, saw approximately 20 million barrels per day of oil and gas transit. Immediately following the MoU, traffic significantly decreased, with only seven ships crossing over four days, compared to an average of two tankers daily during the height of the war. Iran had previously restricted shipping through the strait, at times charging as much as $2 million per ship for transit.
Several theories are circulating regarding the attacks, including the possibility that the Qatari tanker might have strayed into an area where Iranian teams were conducting mine-clearing operations. Iranian television reported claims that the LNG tanker ignored warnings, though Tehran did not directly claim responsibility for the assault. The US official, speaking anonymously, stated that initial indications suggested Iran had fired at two commercial vessels. These incidents have caused oil prices, which had returned to pre-war levels after the June ceasefire, to tick up by around 1% on July 7, underscoring ongoing insecurity for Gulf shipping. Indian state refiners, previously considering Iranian oil if waivers extended beyond August due to significant discounts, now face renewed uncertainty. They had fully booked shipments through August and prioritize Russian Urals oil due to steeper discounts (around $6 a barrel compared to $4-$5 for Iranian crude).
