Oppenheimer analyst Tim Horan has reiterated his bullish stance on SpaceX, maintaining a buy rating and a $250 price target, and forecasting a remarkable $10 trillion valuation for the company within the next five years. This projection, which would make SpaceX's value comparable to the combined GDP of Germany and Japan, is driven by the company's aggressive expansion into the artificial intelligence market, marked by its early 2026 acquisition of xAI, now a core business pillar. Horan views SpaceX as far more than just a launch company, emphasizing its strategic pivot towards AI and its potential to disrupt multiple industries.
A key component of Horan's valuation is Starlink, which he believes will be worth approximately $1 trillion. He anticipates a hundredfold increase in Starlink's capacity over the next 5 to 10 years, expanding from its current 12 million broadband subscribers across 164 countries to potentially hundreds of millions. This growth is expected to generate significant revenue to fund SpaceX's ambitious projects. The analyst also highlighted the long-term potential for space-based data centers, noting that the company's control over cheap heavy-lift launch capacity positions it to become a landlord for orbital compute, especially with a recent GAO assessment projecting data centers to account for up to 12% of U.S. electrical demand by 2028.
Horan's analysis underscores SpaceX's vertical integration strategy, particularly its plans to manufacture its own solar panels and chips, with ambitions to build a semiconductor fab capable of producing five times the world's current output. This comprehensive control over launch, satellites, ground networks, AI models, and eventually chip production forms the core of his optimistic "moat" thesis. The near-term success of Starship, providing reliable operational cadence for launching new communication satellites, is identified as crucial for realizing the hundredfold Starlink capacity expansion and the targeted $1 trillion in revenue.
The market's current sentiment contrasts sharply with Horan's long-term outlook. SpaceX shares are trading around $158, down from a 52-week high of $225.64. The stock experienced a significant drop, falling below its five-day volume-weighted average of $181, with some investors questioning the valuation post-IPO. Despite a recent bounce of 5.34% to $162.86, skepticism persists among retail investors, as indicated by online discussions. However, Horan's $250 target and $10 trillion long-term call are predicated on the company's ability to execute its ambitious plans, with the performance of the next twelve Starship launches expected to be a critical determinant.
