Russia's crude oil exports reached a record high in the four weeks leading up to June 28, averaging 4.13 million barrels a day, the highest since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. However, the value of these shipments has not kept pace with the soaring quantities. The gross value of Russia's seaborne crude exports fell to $1.9 billion a week, marking the lowest income since March. This significant drop in revenue is attributed to a combination of factors, including tumbling global oil benchmarks, an interim peace deal in the Middle East that has boosted oil flows from the Persian Gulf, and subdued Chinese demand.
The price of Russia's key export grade, Urals crude, experienced a sharp decline, falling 48% from $112.49 a barrel in early May to $58.94 at the end of June. On June 26, it briefly hit $57.40, and Argus Media assessed it at $44.96 per barrel on that same day, which is 40% below early June and less than half of April's peak of $115. Similarly, Pacific-loading ESPO oil was assessed at $61.27 per barrel on June 26, down 20% from early June and 36% from early May. These price drops have effectively halved the value of Baltic cargo shipments compared to early May.
The increase in Russia's crude oil exports also contributed to a substantial build-up of barrels at sea, with stocks climbing by about a third from their mid-April low. This accumulation, particularly near Egypt and Singapore, suggests that Russia might be facing challenges in selling all its oil. Furthermore, ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, such as those in Ufa, Yaroslavl, and Slavyansk-na-Kubani, are diverting crude that cannot be processed domestically into exports, further saturating the market and contributing to the downward pressure on prices. For example, Moscow's oil refinery might remain offline for the rest of the year due to these attacks. The Finance Ministry's data indicated that oil-and-gas revenue was 2.98 trillion rubles ($39 billion) in January–May, down 29.8% from a year earlier, and the federal deficit had already reached 6 trillion rubles ($78 billion) by the end of May. If prices remain near $45, they will stay below the $59-per-barrel average assumed by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov for Russia's 2026 oil-and-gas revenues.
