Following its initial public offering last month, Wall Street firms have begun issuing recommendations for SpaceX. Most analysts are bullish, with eight of the twelve tracked by Bloomberg rating the stock a "buy." Price targets over the next 12 months range from $165 to $401, with an average of $223, representing a 41% increase from Wednesday's closing price. Major banks that underwrote the $86 billion IPO, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase, are expected to release more research next week as their quiet period ends.
However, some analysts are skeptical. Nicolas Owens of Morningstar has a "sell" rating, Argus initiated coverage at "hold," and CFRA analyst Keith Snyder assigned a "sell" rating with a $115 12-month target, below the IPO price. These cautious views stem from SpaceX's elevated market valuation and significant capital intensity. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, led by George Ferguson, predict an 800% jump in sales by 2030 but note the stock will remain more expensive than megacap peers.
SpaceX is projected to report about $36 billion in revenue for 2026 and is not yet profitable, with a slight profit anticipated in 2028 and revenue quadrupling to $160 billion. Analysts are projecting aggressive growth, with Goldman Sachs seeing total revenue hitting $474 billion by 2030, Evercore ISI expecting sales to top $1 trillion by 2031, and Morgan Stanley suggesting revenue could reach $3.4 trillion by 2040. The current price-to-sales ratio is 41 times projected revenue over the next 12 months, significantly higher than Palantir Technologies (32 times), Apple, and Microsoft (both below 9 times).
Despite the valuation concerns, bullish analysts like Dan Ives of Wedbush initiated coverage with an "Outperform" rating and a $190 price target, seeing SpaceX as a key player in launch, connectivity, and AI. Oppenheimer also initiated coverage with an "Outperform" rating and a $190 price target, implying a 40% upside from its $135 IPO price. Ives highlights Starlink's 12 million subscribers and $66 average revenue per user as a profit engine. Another significant catalyst is SpaceX's upcoming inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index, which Bloomberg Intelligence estimates will drive $4.9 billion in share purchases.
SpaceX's stock went public at $135, opened at $150, and reached a high of $201.80, giving it a market capitalization of $2.6 trillion. However, it later dropped to $157.54, reducing its market capitalization to less than $2.1 trillion. Analysts acknowledge the difficulty in valuing SpaceX due to its unique position across multiple industries and the long-term nature of its revenue streams, leading to potential stock volatility.
