The funeral of Iran's late Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was more than a national mourning event; it was a deliberate and strategic demonstration of Iranian defiance and unity in the face of ongoing conflicts with the U.S. and Israel. Officials and analysts suggest that the massive turnout, with estimates ranging from 10 million to 20 million mourners across several days and cities, aimed to project an image of a strong, unified Islamic Republic that survived recent U.S. and Israeli strikes that began on February 28.
Iran is actively using this perceived strength, particularly its control over the Strait of Hormuz, as a key negotiating tool. The Strait, a vital chokepoint for a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, has become Iran's most powerful asset, surpassing even its nuclear program in immediate strategic importance. Tehran is demanding that any future nuclear deal commence with the acknowledgment of its sovereignty and dominant position over the Strait. This stance is exemplified by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf's statement that Iran would "under no circumstances relinquish its rights" there.
Analysts like Alex Vatanka of the U.S.-based Middle East Institute emphasize that Iran views the Strait of Hormuz less as an economic asset for revenues and more as a source of political legitimacy and symbolic acceptance of its regional power. Tehran is deliberately slowing negotiations, playing for time to consolidate what it perceives as the "war's dividends" before seriously addressing its nuclear program or other issues like sanctions relief. Former U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre notes that "Iran is perfectly happy to play for time and just drag negotiations out," aiming to institutionalize its control over Hormuz through transit arrangements, coordination mechanisms, or service charges.
Despite a 60-day ceasefire intended to revive nuclear diplomacy, Iran has shifted the focus to securing its position on Hormuz. Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. Middle East negotiator, suggests that the "60-day clock was always a fantasy," and Iran will not engage seriously on nuclear matters until the new reality around Hormuz is accepted and significant progress is made on unfreezing billions of dollars in assets abroad. Tehran believes that U.S. President Donald Trump is under more pressure to secure a deal, especially ahead of midterm elections, than Iran is to make concessions, further empowering its bargaining position.
