Corn futures have seen a significant rise, particularly driven by an intense heatwave in France. This extreme weather has severely damaged corn crops, leading to a projected decline in France's corn harvest to 9.5 million tons, marking the lowest level in 26 years. The share of French corn rated good to excellent plummeted from 84% to 76% in just one week, causing Euronext corn futures to hit contract highs and widening the price gap between European and US markets.
Adding to the market dynamics, Spain has increased its purchases of US corn, a shift that has further emphasized the price arbitrage between Paris and Chicago futures. This increased demand for American supplies comes as traders weigh tighter corn availability in France against ample US supplies. However, the latest USDA quarterly grain stocks report somewhat offset this effect, as US corn inventories were lower than market expectations due to stronger domestic feed demand, providing some support to Chicago corn prices.
In the US corn market, both cash premiums and outright prices were mostly higher. Despite Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures ending the week lower, they found support from USDA data revealing US corn stocks at 5.29 billion bushels, below the average trade estimate of 5.39 billion bushels. The USDA also estimated US corn planted area for 2026 at 95.343 million acres, a 3% decrease from the previous year. The heatwave in the US has also been a key factor, creating volatility in futures by suggesting potential crop impacts while later easing pressure with expected rains.
