Danish shipping giant Maersk announced that one of its Gemini network services, operated jointly with Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd, will begin transiting the Suez Canal again, rather than sailing around Africa's Cape of Good Hope. This decision, following thorough assessments of the security situation in the Red Sea, marks a gradual step towards resuming trans-Suez corridor operations. The specific service to resume Suez transit is the IMX/ME11, with the Albert Maersk westbound and Astrid Maersk eastbound sailings starting mid-February 2026.
Since late 2023, Houthi rebel attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea have forced carriers to divert around the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 10 to 14 days and significant fuel costs per voyage. This diversion absorbed capacity, leading to sharply higher spot freight rates. Maersk had previously lifted its 2026 EBITDA guidance last month to $8-$10 billion, from an earlier range of $4.5-$7 billion, alongside a global container volume growth forecast of around 4%. The return to the shorter Suez route is expected to release this absorbed capacity back into the market, which will likely pressure freight rates downwards.
The announcement led to a decline in the stock prices of both companies, with Maersk's shares dipping more than 5% in Copenhagen trading and Hapag-Lloyd's falling 3%. While this move signals a potential return to the Asia-Europe trade route, the security environment remains uncertain, as evidenced by a recent attack on a cargo vessel near Hodeida, Yemen. For now, only the IMX/ME11 service is resuming the Suez route, with broader industry return and expansion to other Gemini services like SE1 and SE3 dependent on sustained improvements in regional stability. Shipping firms, including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, are bracing for potentially tougher financial years in 2025 and 2026 due to anticipated lower profits as the reopening of the Red Sea route, combined with existing oversupply issues, weighs on freight rates.
