Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd Eyeing Return to Red Sea Route, Shares Fall

Shares of shipping giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd experienced declines, with Maersk dipping over 5% and Hapag-Lloyd falling 3% in trading. This market reaction followed Maersk's announcement that one of its Gemini network services, jointly operated with Hapag-Lloyd, would resume transiting the Suez Canal instead of rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. The decision signals a cautious, gradual return to the Red Sea area for some services after thorough security assessments.

The resumption of Suez Canal transits by the IMX/ME11 service, which connects India and the Middle East with the Mediterranean, is seen as a step towards potentially restoring the shorter Asia-Europe trade route. For the past few years, Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea forced carriers to divert around Africa, adding 10 to 14 days and significant fuel costs per voyage. This diversion absorbed shipping capacity and contributed to a sharp increase in spot freight rates. Maersk previously lifted its 2026 EBITDA guidance to $8 billion–$10 billion, up from $4.5 billion–$7 billion, anticipating a 4% global container volume growth. A broader return to the Suez route would release this absorbed capacity, likely pressuring freight rates.

The Suez Canal resumptions will begin in mid-February 2026, with the "Albert Maersk" for westbound and "Astrid Maersk" for eastbound sailings. All Red Sea transits will occur under heightened security, including naval escorts. The companies emphasize that the decision is a pilot-style return, and further expansion to other Gemini services (SE1, SE3) will depend on sustained stability in the Red Sea area. Analysts suggest that a broader industry return to the Suez route would significantly compress spot rates across Asia-Europe and India-Mediterranean corridors, leading to lower profits for global container liners in 2026. The move follows a recent incident where a cargo vessel was attacked near Yemen, although no group claimed responsibility. This highlights the uncertain security environment that shipping companies continue to monitor closely.