Oil and gas shipping through the US-protected corridor in the Strait of Hormuz is showing signs of recovery. This follows a period where several vessels performed unexplained U-turns and detours in the critical energy passage. As of Sunday, six oil and gas freighters were observed using a route hugging Oman's coast, though many ships are known to sail with transponders off to avoid detection. Western navies caution that despite continued traffic, the threat remains “substantial,” with reports of the strait's center being mined. Two smaller tankers were also seen exiting the Persian Gulf by sailing closer to Iran.
Over the weekend, 19 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz, but only one openly signaled its inbound journey along the Omani coast on Saturday, compared to 13 on Friday. This tally only accounts for observable transits, with figures potentially changing as more "dark crossngs" (without transponders) are verified. The oil market is currently focused on the transit of goods through Hormuz, a process complicated by ships attempting to evade Iranian military attention. Eight vessels executed U-turns over Friday and Saturday, with four subsequently turning northward towards the Iranian route to exit the strait.
Of the vessels that turned back, at least one gas tanker appeared to be re-attempting transit on Sunday, sailing past Oman's Musandam peninsula. Another tanker transited the same route earlier, openly signaling its intentions, and is now broadcasting its location in the Gulf of Oman. Other ships are choosing to cross at night, reappearing once past the waterway. One Suezmax crude carrier, after last broadcasting from within the Persian Gulf on Saturday, emerged in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday. There is no immediate explanation for the U-turns, though Iran has consistently stated that vessels must transit through its designated and licensed route. Naval liaison groups have not commented on the U-turns, but the Joint Maritime Intelligence Center reiterated on Sunday that Iranian forces continue to harass shipping.
Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has seen a significant increase, with US military support helping to boost oil flows to over $10 million barrels per day. This surge follows an interim peace agreement between the US and Iran. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports have also neared pre-war levels, with $6.3 million barrels per day shipped in the six days leading up to Wednesday. This represents approximately 90% of its February 2025 exports before the conflict with Iran began. While the interim peace deal included an agreement for ships to pass through Hormuz, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to assert control, and two vessels have reportedly been attacked.
The willingness of tanker companies to accept the risks of traversing the narrow waterway is crucial for normalizing the oil market, which is still recovering from a four-month crisis. During the conflict, ships attempting to leave the Persian Gulf via Hormuz frequently reported radio warnings from Iranian forces demanding permission to proceed, and Iran has fired upon some vessels that continued sailing. The US military has explicitly stated it has defended commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz from regular threats since implementing a program to assist vessels, often guiding them through an Omani coastal route with signals off to enhance security and boost oil and cargo flows.
