Gold prices were stable around $4,175 per ounce on July 5, 2026, following a rally last week that marked the metal's first weekly gain in five weeks. This rebound was primarily triggered by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' June employment report, released on July 2, 2026, which revealed that nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000. This figure was significantly below economists' consensus forecast of 110,000, suggesting a cooling labor market and subsequently softening expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
The weakened jobs data led to a notable shift in market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The probability of a September rate increase, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool, dropped from approximately 66% to around 53-54% after the report. This reduction in anticipated interest rates decreases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar experienced its largest weekly decline since April, further boosting gold's appeal.
These factors collectively propelled gold prices up by approximately 2% during the week ending July 4, 2026, pushing spot prices into the $4,175–$4,187 range. Despite this recent rally, JPMorgan revised its gold price forecasts downward, projecting an average of $4,300 per ounce for Q3 and $4,500 for Q4 of 2026, a significant reduction from its earlier year-end target of $6,000. JPMorgan cited the risk of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy more aggressively than currently expected as a potential deterrent to higher gold prices, although current data suggests a less hawkish stance.
