Between Friday and Saturday, at least eight commercial vessels, including oil tankers, bulk carriers, and vehicle carriers, attempting to exit the Persian Gulf along the Omani coast reversed their routes near the Strait of Hormuz. This action suggests Iran's continued attempts to assert control over the partially reopened waterway, despite a recent agreement with the US to allow freer transit. Some of the affected vessels, after reaching the tip of the Musandam Peninsula, made sharp reversals, with one crude tanker, two products tankers, and one bulk carrier subsequently sailing northward toward Iran to continue their outbound transit.
These disruptions come despite a memorandum of understanding signed in Qatar on June 17, which established a 60-day negotiation period and a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran. Under this interim deal, Iran agreed to permit free transit for stranded tankers, though Tehran maintains that the agreement allows it to retain control of the waterway in cooperation with Oman. The situation remains highly unstable, with the latest ship movements highlighting the fragility of the agreement and Iran's persistent pressure campaign, which insists that vessels use routes authorized by the Islamic Republic.
While Morgan Stanley reported a daily average of 34 commodity vessels crossing the strait since Monday, an increase from wartime levels, this is still far below pre-war volumes. Data from the Joint Maritime Information Center showed 65 ships crossed along the Omani side between June 30 and July 1, with 59 supported by the US. However, this pattern of U-turns indicates that route uncertainty is significantly impacting commercial decisions at sea, adding costs, delays, and doubt for shipping companies.
The geopolitical conflict, which began with US and Israeli strikes on February 28 and saw 96 US strikes on military infrastructure in the Bandar Abbas region before an April 8 ceasefire, previously led to the closure of the waterway and a surge in global energy prices. Energy analysts, such as Kevin Morrison from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, warned that any projected oil surplus relies heavily on the US and Iran maintaining their agreement. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, a professor of economics at Philipps-Universitat Marburg, added that market assumptions regarding the recovery of Hormuz flows and the temporary opening of Iranian oil exports remain highly fragile. Damage to regional energy infrastructure during the conflict is expected to prevent shipping volumes from reaching normal levels until next year.
