OPEC's crude production experienced a significant rebound in June, following a period of decline caused by the Iran war. This surge is directly linked to the increased flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, thanks to an interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Overall oil supply through Hormuz has now reached more than 10 million barrels a day, a strong indicator of normalizing shipments in the Persian Gulf.
Saudi Arabia, the world's top crude exporter, has seen its exports reach 6.3 million barrels a day in the first six days of July, close to its 2025 average and nearly 90% of its February pre-war levels. This marks a substantial jump from approximately 4.5 million barrels a day in June. The UAE similarly restored its oil exports to pre-conflict levels of over 3.9 million barrels a day in June. Iraq is also accelerating oil loadings, with observed shipments exiting Hormuz or loading at Basrah totaling about 7 million barrels so far in July, matching its total volume for April and May.
The recovery in exports has led to a surplus of cargoes, causing oil futures to slump and erase all gains made during the war. Traders are closely monitoring the pace of this normalization, as millions of barrels per day return to the market. Although the interim peace deal allowed ships to pass through Hormuz, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to claim control, with two vessels reportedly attacked. Saudi Aramco has also diversified its sales strategy, selling at least 6 million barrels of crude on an ad-hoc basis to Asian customers, departing from its usual long-term contracts.
